Ecological Analyses of Permanent and Temporary Migration Streams in China in the 1990s

Dudley L. Poston, Jr., Texas A&M University
Li Zhang, Texas A&M University

Using data from China’s Fifth National Census of 2000, this paper analyzes the dynamics of China’s inter-provincial permanent and temporary migration streams for the 1995-2000 period. The permanent and temporary migration streams are shown to have similar patterns, but the volume of the temporary migration streams greatly outnumbers that of the permanent streams. A human ecological model of migration is then proposed and tested, and its results are compared with those of a gravity model of migration. Of the various ecological variables examined in the models, investment levels at destination, and being a coastal province at destination, all have strong effects on migration. The effects of the independent variables are more similar than different with regard to predicting the permanent and the temporary migration streams.

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Presented in Poster Session 4